Israel’s attack on Lebanon highlights the ineffectiveness of Biden’s warnings

For about a year, ending the war drums in Gaza, Palestine has been at the top of US President Joe Biden’s priority list. Along with that, ensuring this war doesn’t turn into a full-scale regional conflict. To this end, he has issued various warnings to Israel at different times.

With a few weeks left before the US presidential election, Biden is participating in the last UN General Assembly session of his term. At the same time, Israel has launched large-scale attacks on Lebanon. Several hundred people have been killed in these attacks. Apparently, these attacks have highlighted the ineffectiveness of Biden’s warnings.

Joe Biden met with the leader of the United Arab Emirates yesterday, Monday. The country is coordinating talks with conflicting parties in the Middle East with the aim of ‘de-escalating tensions’.

A US official told AFP that the Biden administration has presented ‘specific ideas’ to prevent further conflict spreading in the Middle East. This certainly pointed to a diplomatic solution to the crisis.

But the situation has quickly spiraled out of the US administration’s control. Last week, when pagers exploded one after another across Lebanon targeting the Iran-backed Hezbollah group, the United States said they had no prior indication to hold the Israeli government broadly responsible for this. Washington urged calm.

Soon after, Israeli forces launched attacks on Lebanon. Yesterday, it was reported that in the last 24 hours, 1,000 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon were attacked. Lebanese authorities report that at least 492 people have been killed in Israeli attacks, including 35 children.

It’s been almost a year since Israeli forces launched an all-out war in Gaza, Palestine. Ignoring warnings about not spreading the heat of this war to the level of a ‘regional war’, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that his country’s goal is to change the ‘security balance’ with its northern neighbor Lebanon.

A few weeks after US-led diplomatic efforts failed to reach a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, Israeli forces launched a strong military operation in Lebanon. In the context of a dispute over prisoner release with Hamas, Netanyahu has also emphasized the presence of Israeli troops on the Gaza-Egypt border.

Michael Hanna, director of the US program at the International Crisis Group, says US diplomats were trying to maintain peace in Lebanon in order to reach a ceasefire agreement in Gaza.

US domestic politics is now going through a complex time. The country’s presidential election is on November 5. Before that, Joe Biden’s political successor Kamala Harris has entered into tough electoral competition with former US President Donald Trump.

At such a time, Biden-Kamala will be eager to avoid all-out war and disorder. Although very few people believe that the US administration will take any strong action against Israel, given the domestic political risks so close to the election.

On this matter, Michael Hanna says, it wouldn’t be very difficult to guess that the US political calendar will play a role in Israel’s decision-making process regarding when to expand operations in Lebanon.

James Jeffrey, former US ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, says US policymakers have instinctively worked for a ceasefire. However, like Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Netanyahu was more concerned about his country’s security.

James Jeffrey, a former diplomat who took a tough stance against Iran, now works at the Wilson Center in Washington. He says, 

‘We are already in a regional war. We have been in such a situation for the last 20 years.’

James Jeffrey further says that Iran is now in a somewhat backward position. At least for the moment, it has lost Hamas, one of its main allies (proxies). Another ally, Hezbollah, is under pressure.

Joe Biden has always expressed concern about the indiscriminate killing of civilians in Gaza. However, even after all this, US aid to Israel has not stopped. Billions of dollars in military aid is still being given to Israel.

The US Department of Defense, the Pentagon, said yesterday that the United States will send additional troops to the Middle East. They will do this to fulfill the promise made to close ally Israel in the context of the conflict spreading to a larger scale.

Meanwhile, Iran’s new President Masoud Pezeshkian, attending the UN General Assembly session, has accused Israel of wanting a larger conflict. Tehran has shown restraint because of assurances that a ceasefire in Gaza could be ensured.

Masoud Pezeshkian further says,

‘But we have never been able to reach that elusive peace.’